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Fragile Rise

Grand Strategy and the Fate of Imperial Germany, 1871–1914

Part of Belfer Center Studies in International Security

Author Xu Qiyu
Foreword by Graham Allison
Translated by Joshua Hill
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$40.00 US
The MIT Press
24 per carton
On sale Oct 31, 2023 | 9780262549738
Sales rights: World
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Germany's rise to power before World War I from a Chinese persective, and the geopolitical lessons for today.

A series of solemn anniversary events have marked the centenary of World War I. Could history repeat itself in today's geopolitics? Now, as then, a land power with a growing economy and a maritime power with global commitments are the two leading states in the international system. Most ominously, the outbreak of war in 1914 is a stark reminder that nations cannot rely on economic interdependence and ongoing diplomacy to keep the peace.

In Fragile Rise, Xu Qiyu offers a Chinese perspective on the course of German grand strategy in the decades before World War I. Xu shows how Germany's diplomatic blunders turned its growing power into a liability instead of an asset. Bismarck's successors provoked tension and conflict with the other European great powers. Germany's attempts to build a powerful navy alienated Britain. Fearing an assertive Germany, France and Russia formed an alliance, leaving the declining Austro-Hungarian Empire as Germany's only major ally.

Xu's account demonstrates that better strategy and statesmanship could have made a difference—for Germany and Europe. His analysis offers important lessons for the leaders of China and other countries. Fragile Rise reminds us that the emergence of a new great power creates risks that can be managed only by adroit diplomats, including the leaders of the emerging power. In the twenty-first century, another great war may not be inevitable. Heeding the lessons of Fragile Rise could make it even less likely.
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii
Graham Allison
Translator’s Note . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
Joshua Hill
Preface. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xvii
Xu Qiyu
1. A Low-Posture Rise. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
2. “Active Shaping” and the Foundation of a Grand Staretegy. . . . . .33
3. Working to Maintain the Grand Strategy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .67
4. Entering the Post-Bismarckian Era . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
5. Institutions, Society, Popular Opinion, and Grand Strategy. . . . .127
6. From Weltpolitik to Encirclement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
7. An Obsession with Command of the Seas . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
8. The Schlieffen Plan and the Retreat of Grand Strategy. . . . . . . .227
9. Crisis Management on the Path to World War, 1908–1914. . . . . . . 259
Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .293
About the Author. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .329
Contributors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .331
Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .333
Belfer Center Studies in International Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 343
About the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. . . . . . .346

About

Germany's rise to power before World War I from a Chinese persective, and the geopolitical lessons for today.

A series of solemn anniversary events have marked the centenary of World War I. Could history repeat itself in today's geopolitics? Now, as then, a land power with a growing economy and a maritime power with global commitments are the two leading states in the international system. Most ominously, the outbreak of war in 1914 is a stark reminder that nations cannot rely on economic interdependence and ongoing diplomacy to keep the peace.

In Fragile Rise, Xu Qiyu offers a Chinese perspective on the course of German grand strategy in the decades before World War I. Xu shows how Germany's diplomatic blunders turned its growing power into a liability instead of an asset. Bismarck's successors provoked tension and conflict with the other European great powers. Germany's attempts to build a powerful navy alienated Britain. Fearing an assertive Germany, France and Russia formed an alliance, leaving the declining Austro-Hungarian Empire as Germany's only major ally.

Xu's account demonstrates that better strategy and statesmanship could have made a difference—for Germany and Europe. His analysis offers important lessons for the leaders of China and other countries. Fragile Rise reminds us that the emergence of a new great power creates risks that can be managed only by adroit diplomats, including the leaders of the emerging power. In the twenty-first century, another great war may not be inevitable. Heeding the lessons of Fragile Rise could make it even less likely.

Table of Contents

Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii
Graham Allison
Translator’s Note . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
Joshua Hill
Preface. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xvii
Xu Qiyu
1. A Low-Posture Rise. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
2. “Active Shaping” and the Foundation of a Grand Staretegy. . . . . .33
3. Working to Maintain the Grand Strategy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .67
4. Entering the Post-Bismarckian Era . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
5. Institutions, Society, Popular Opinion, and Grand Strategy. . . . .127
6. From Weltpolitik to Encirclement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
7. An Obsession with Command of the Seas . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
8. The Schlieffen Plan and the Retreat of Grand Strategy. . . . . . . .227
9. Crisis Management on the Path to World War, 1908–1914. . . . . . . 259
Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .293
About the Author. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .329
Contributors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .331
Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .333
Belfer Center Studies in International Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 343
About the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. . . . . . .346

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