0 0
Download high-resolution image

The Age of Prediction

Algorithms, AI, and the Shifting Shadows of Risk

Author Igor Tulchinsky, Christopher E. Mason
$16.99 US
The MIT Press
On sale Aug 22, 2023 | 9780262373197
Sales rights: World
Add to cart Add to list Exam Copies

See Additional Formats
The power of the ever-increasing tools and algorithms for prediction and their paradoxical effects on risk.

The Age of Prediction is about two powerful, and symbiotic, trends: the rapid development and use of artificial intelligence and big data to enhance prediction, as well as the often paradoxical effects of these better predictions on our understanding of risk and the ways we live. Beginning with dramatic advances in quantitative investing and precision medicine, this book explores how predictive technology is quietly reshaping our world in fundamental ways, from crime fighting and warfare to monitoring individual health and elections.
 
As prediction grows more robust, it also alters the nature of the accompanying risk, setting up unintended and unexpected consequences. The Age of Prediction details how predictive certainties can bring about complacency or even an increase in risks—genomic analysis might lead to unhealthier lifestyles or a GPS might encourage less attentive driving. With greater predictability also comes a degree of mystery, and the authors ask how narrower risks might affect markets, insurance, or risk tolerance generally. Can we ever reduce risk to zero? Should we even try? This book lays an intriguing groundwork for answering these fundamental questions and maps out the latest tools and technologies that power these projections into the future, sometimes using novel, cross-disciplinary tools to map out cancer growth, people’s medical risks, and stock dynamics.
Introduction vii
1 Prediction and Risk 1
2 The Complexity of Prediction 9
3 The Quantasaurus 17
4 The Trouble with Risk 39
5 New Tools of Prediction 57
6 Mortality and Its Possibilities 75
7 Crime and Privacy 97
8 The Smart Killing Machine 115
9 Predicting Performance 133
10 The Plague of Polling 151
11 Free Will, AI Jobs, and the Ultimate Paradox 167
Afterword: The Future of the Universe 183
Acknowledgments 189
Bibliography 191
Index 207
Included in The Next Big Idea Club’s August 2023 Must-Read Books list
Included in FT business books — what to read this month

"An ambitious new survey of how predictive algorithms are changing the world. Its publication could hardly be better timed...The Age of Prediction avoids getting bogged down in the debate over what actually counts as AI. Instead, it goes directly to the source and identifies the three big changes which in practice lie behind the startling achievements of the past decade."
—The Financial Times

"If readers need convincing of the significance of prediction to today’s world, the opening chapter of The Age of Prediction will leave few in doubt. Mason and Tulchinsky lay out its role in the pandemic: from the lives lost as a result of failure to predict Covid-19 and the role of algorithms in the creation of vaccines, to the rally of stock markets as financial models recovered from that initial shock. The message is clear: predictive algorithms have changed the world, and all the worlds to come, and there is no going back The authors continue with a thrilling dive into the many ways algorithms are doing so: from the development of autonomous robots and large language models, to accurate predictions of voting patterns; from improved cancer treatments to ever more lethal smart weapons...They also pack the book with compelling anecdotes and insights, including accounts of their experience working in computational biology and data-driven predictive finance."
—The Financial Times

"Human freedom may still be a force to reckon with, say Igor Tulchinsky and Christopher E. Mason in The Age of Prediction: Algorithms, AI, and the shifting shadows of risk. They explore why the more predictable world ushered in by AI may not be safer. Humans evolved to take risks, and weird incentives emerge when predictability seems to increase and risk seems to decline. Tulchinsky, who analyses data flows in financial markets, and Mason, a geneticist who maps dynamics across human and microbial genomes, make odd bedfellows. Mason welcomes any advance that makes medicine more reliable; Tulchinsky fears perfect prediction would render humans as docile and demoralised as cattle. The authors’ spirited dialogue illuminates their detailed survey of what predictive tech can do, from warfare to politics."
—New Scientist

About

The power of the ever-increasing tools and algorithms for prediction and their paradoxical effects on risk.

The Age of Prediction is about two powerful, and symbiotic, trends: the rapid development and use of artificial intelligence and big data to enhance prediction, as well as the often paradoxical effects of these better predictions on our understanding of risk and the ways we live. Beginning with dramatic advances in quantitative investing and precision medicine, this book explores how predictive technology is quietly reshaping our world in fundamental ways, from crime fighting and warfare to monitoring individual health and elections.
 
As prediction grows more robust, it also alters the nature of the accompanying risk, setting up unintended and unexpected consequences. The Age of Prediction details how predictive certainties can bring about complacency or even an increase in risks—genomic analysis might lead to unhealthier lifestyles or a GPS might encourage less attentive driving. With greater predictability also comes a degree of mystery, and the authors ask how narrower risks might affect markets, insurance, or risk tolerance generally. Can we ever reduce risk to zero? Should we even try? This book lays an intriguing groundwork for answering these fundamental questions and maps out the latest tools and technologies that power these projections into the future, sometimes using novel, cross-disciplinary tools to map out cancer growth, people’s medical risks, and stock dynamics.

Table of Contents

Introduction vii
1 Prediction and Risk 1
2 The Complexity of Prediction 9
3 The Quantasaurus 17
4 The Trouble with Risk 39
5 New Tools of Prediction 57
6 Mortality and Its Possibilities 75
7 Crime and Privacy 97
8 The Smart Killing Machine 115
9 Predicting Performance 133
10 The Plague of Polling 151
11 Free Will, AI Jobs, and the Ultimate Paradox 167
Afterword: The Future of the Universe 183
Acknowledgments 189
Bibliography 191
Index 207

Praise

Included in The Next Big Idea Club’s August 2023 Must-Read Books list
Included in FT business books — what to read this month

"An ambitious new survey of how predictive algorithms are changing the world. Its publication could hardly be better timed...The Age of Prediction avoids getting bogged down in the debate over what actually counts as AI. Instead, it goes directly to the source and identifies the three big changes which in practice lie behind the startling achievements of the past decade."
—The Financial Times

"If readers need convincing of the significance of prediction to today’s world, the opening chapter of The Age of Prediction will leave few in doubt. Mason and Tulchinsky lay out its role in the pandemic: from the lives lost as a result of failure to predict Covid-19 and the role of algorithms in the creation of vaccines, to the rally of stock markets as financial models recovered from that initial shock. The message is clear: predictive algorithms have changed the world, and all the worlds to come, and there is no going back The authors continue with a thrilling dive into the many ways algorithms are doing so: from the development of autonomous robots and large language models, to accurate predictions of voting patterns; from improved cancer treatments to ever more lethal smart weapons...They also pack the book with compelling anecdotes and insights, including accounts of their experience working in computational biology and data-driven predictive finance."
—The Financial Times

"Human freedom may still be a force to reckon with, say Igor Tulchinsky and Christopher E. Mason in The Age of Prediction: Algorithms, AI, and the shifting shadows of risk. They explore why the more predictable world ushered in by AI may not be safer. Humans evolved to take risks, and weird incentives emerge when predictability seems to increase and risk seems to decline. Tulchinsky, who analyses data flows in financial markets, and Mason, a geneticist who maps dynamics across human and microbial genomes, make odd bedfellows. Mason welcomes any advance that makes medicine more reliable; Tulchinsky fears perfect prediction would render humans as docile and demoralised as cattle. The authors’ spirited dialogue illuminates their detailed survey of what predictive tech can do, from warfare to politics."
—New Scientist

Additional formats

Other Books by this Author

Penguin Random House Backlist Vault

© 2025 Penguin Random House

Back to Top
0
    • 0
    Wish List (0)